REPORT SAYS POST-ELECTION PERIOD OFFERS CHANCE FOR DAMAGE CONTROL AND RESET

Anwar Shahadat, New York, 24, 2025.

The International Crisis Group has expressed concern in its latest report, published on 23 December in Brussels, over the state of relations between India and Bangladesh. The report says ties between the two countries have come under strain following political upheaval in Dhaka, warning that years of close cooperation were heavily dependent on personal political alignment rather than broad public consensus.

Bilateral ties expanded significantly during the tenure of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, a period India described as a “golden era” marked by boundary agreements, increased trade, infrastructure projects and closer people-to-people links. The report says that progress proved fragile after Hasina was removed from power in a student-led uprising in August 2024 and later took shelter in India.

India’s close association with Hasina’s government, including its support during disputed elections, fuelled nationalist resentment in Bangladesh, the report says. Diplomatic trust weakened in the months that followed, with cooperation slowing on trade, connectivity and security issues.

The Crisis Group cites growing mutual mistrust, domestic political pressures, trade frictions and border security concerns as key drivers of the downturn, alongside perceptions in Bangladesh that India wielded excessive influence. The fallout has included project delays, tighter visa policies and reduced strategic coordination.

With Bangladesh’s national elections scheduled for February 2026, the report identifies the post-election period as the most realistic opportunity to reset relations. It urges India to broaden engagement beyond a single political party and consider confidence-building measures, while advising Bangladeshi leaders to avoid anti-India rhetoric and pursue a balanced foreign policy.

While the risk of major conflict remains low, unresolved tensions could trigger protests, cross-border incidents or heightened political polarisation if left unaddressed, the report warns.