By Tanvir Rusmat, Dhaka, Dec 17, 2025

Global economic growth has stabilised in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, but at a pace markedly slower than the pre-pandemic decade. According to the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects, average global GDP growth stood at around 3.1% between 2010 and 2019. That momentum has not returned. For 2024 and 2025, global growth is projected to remain in the range of 2.6% to 2.7%, signalling a prolonged period of subdued expansion.

Against this backdrop, South Asia continues to outperform the global average. World Bank data show that the region recorded average growth of about 6.7% in the decade preceding Covid-19. Despite the shock of the pandemic, South Asia is expected to maintain relatively strong momentum, with growth projected at around 6.2% on average between 2024 and 2026.

Bangladesh remains part of this regional growth story, but signs of a loss of economic momentum have become increasingly evident. World Bank estimates indicate that in the initial post-Covid period, Bangladesh recorded GDP growth of approximately 5.2% to 5.6%. In subsequent years, however, growth has slowed, falling within a range of 3.3% to 4.8%.

The World Bank’s Bangladesh Development Update identifies several factors constraining growth, including elevated inflation, pressure on foreign exchange reserves, tighter global financial conditions, weak investment dynamics, and political and policy-related uncertainty.

Commenting on the outlook for Bangladesh, Jean-Pierre Poncelet (Jean-Pierre Pém), Division Director at the World Bank’s Dhaka office, told The Business Standard that there are indications of a gradual recovery, particularly in remittance inflows and export performance. However, he noted that global economic headwinds and subdued domestic investment continue to prevent growth from returning to its pre-pandemic trajectory.

More broadly, the World Bank’s analysis points to high global interest rates and ongoing geopolitical tensions as key factors slowing international trade and investment flows. For emerging economies such as Bangladesh, this has created a dual challenge: weakening external demand for exports alongside declining investor confidence at home.

Economists argue that the global economy is likely to remain in a “low-growth normal” through at least 2025. Within this environment, Bangladesh’s core challenge is not only to stay above the global average, but to rebuild the capacity for the high growth rates achieved before Covid-19. Without stronger inflation control, improved financial sector discipline, greater policy predictability and a sustained recovery in private investment, returning to growth above 6% in the medium term will be difficult.

Analysts warn that delays in structural reforms could leave Bangladesh, despite being part of one of the world’s faster-growing regions, at risk of remaining stuck in a prolonged phase of moderate growth.