Pakistan–Saudi Defence Pact Sparks Talk of a “Southern NATO” Amid Shifting Asian Power Balance

Tanvir Rusmat: Dhaka, October 11,2025

A landmark Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement (SMDA) between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia has sent ripples across South Asia and the Middle East, as analysts speculate it could mark the first step toward a broader regional alliance a so-called “Southern NATO.”

Signed in September 2025, the agreement declares that an attack on one country will be considered an attack on both a clause reminiscent of NATO’s Article 5. While the pact does not explicitly reference nuclear deterrence, Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif hinted that “the capabilities we possess could extend to Saudi Arabia if required,” though he later clarified that nuclear cooperation is “not part of the formal framework.”

Saudi officials emphasized that the pact is “not directed against any specific state” but is aimed at “comprehensive defense and mutual stability.” The move, however, has heightened geopolitical anxieties across the region, with India, Iran, and China closely monitoring developments.

Soon after the signing, a Saudi business delegation arrived in Islamabad to explore defense-linked investment and energy cooperation, indicating that the pact might evolve beyond military terms into a multi-dimensional strategic partnership. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif hailed it as “a historic milestone in multidimensional economic, strategic, and defense cooperation between two brotherly nations.”

Regional experts suggest the agreement could reshape existing security architectures in Asia, particularly as the Quad Alliance (US, Japan, India, Australia) seeks to counterbalance China’s expanding influence. According to Dr. Hamid Al-Rashid, a Gulf security analyst, “This deal signals a new chapter in Muslim world security cooperation. Whether it becomes NATO-like depends largely on U.S. engagement and China’s reaction.”

Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar echoed similar sentiments in parliament, noting that “if more nations join this framework, it could evolve into a NATO-style alliance in the Global South.”

Still, the prospect of a full-fledged “Southern NATO” remains uncertain. Experts point to deep political divisions, competing national interests, and the absence of any binding collective defense mechanism. Yet, as Brookings Institution analysts observed, the SMDA “sets a precedent for extended deterrence and power realignment in the Islamic world.”

Though in its infancy, the Pakistan–Saudi pact could redefine regional security narratives and possibly ignite the South’s own version of a new Cold War.