Rohingya crisis: from humanitarian responsibility to security risk for Bangladesh

By Tanvir Rusmat, Dhaka, Jan 20, 2026

The Rohingya crisis in Bangladesh is increasingly moving beyond the bounds of a humanitarian issue and emerging as a national security and regional geopolitical challenge. Myanmar’s civil war, the absence of effective international pressure, and the deterioration of funding and law and order in the refugee camps in Cox’s Bazar have combined to turn the crisis into a prolonged and multidimensional risk.

Ongoing fighting between Myanmar’s military junta and ethnic armed groups has effectively rendered Rakhine State ungovernable. According to analysis by the International Crisis Group, the civil war is not merely an internal conflict but is also intensifying security instability along the Bangladesh–Myanmar border and further undermining prospects for Rohingya repatriation. The organisation notes that without a safe and stable environment in Rakhine, repatriation is not realistic.

Geopolitically, Myanmar’s junta continues to receive diplomatic and military backing from China and Russia. As a result, robust action or binding pressure through the United Nations Security Council has been effectively stalled. The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (UN OHCHR) has stated that although human rights violations in Myanmar persist, the lack of international consensus has prevented accountability, delaying a political resolution to the Rohingya crisis.

At the same time, declining international funding for the nearly one million Rohingya living in Bangladesh is further worsening conditions in the camps. The UN refugee agency (UNHCR) and the World Food Programme (WFP) have warned that funding shortfalls are forcing cuts to food assistance, protection services and education programmes, increasing the risks of social unrest and criminal activity.

Research by the Centre for Peace and Justice (CPJ) at BRAC University, titled Rohingya Humanitarian Response through the Joint Response Plans (2018–2025), finds that prolonged uncertainty, limited livelihood opportunities and weak governance are contributing to rising levels of crime, violence and protection risks within the camps. According to the CPJ study, women and children are particularly vulnerable, and without effective law enforcement these risks are likely to deepen further.

These concerns are reinforced by Human Rights Watch, which has warned that prolonged displacement under conditions of despair can make refugee communities vulnerable to criminal networks or extremist groups. Such dynamics, the organisation argues, can ultimately pose a threat to the internal security of host countries.

Taken together, the Rohingya crisis is no longer solely a humanitarian responsibility for Bangladesh; it has become a full-fledged geopolitical liability and security challenge. Without effective international pressure, sustainable funding, and a realistic roadmap for repatriation, the crisis will continue to place long-term strain on Bangladesh’s strategic stability.