Rohingya Crisis Poised to Continue Amid International Skepticism of Myanmar’s Election

By Sadik Sagar, Dhaka, December 4, 2024

With Myanmar’s national election set to begin on December 28, 2025, concerns are mounting among international organisations and regional powers about the credibility of the upcoming polls. These doubts have reinforced fears that the long-running Rohingya crisis—already one of the world’s most protracted humanitarian tragedies—will continue without a viable path toward justice, repatriation or citizenship.

Nearly four years after the military coup, Myanmar remains deeply unstable. Fighting between the junta and various ethnic armed groups has expanded significantly in recent months, leaving large parts of the country outside government control. Human rights organisations warn that meaningful voting will be impossible in conflict-affected territories, while opposition parties have been systematically restricted, disbanded or denied political space. As a result, much of the international community views the scheduled election as an exercise aimed at legitimising military rule rather than restoring democracy.

For the Rohingya, who endured mass violence in 2017 and remain denied citizenship in Myanmar, the implications are severe. More than one million Rohingya live in precarious conditions in Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar camps, where food rations have been cut, crime networks have expanded and frustration is rising. The junta continues to block meaningful steps toward repatriation, insisting on harsh verification processes that exclude recognition of Rohingya identity. With the Myanmar military preparing an election widely deemed non-inclusive, analysts see no political incentive for Naypyidaw to alter its stance.

Regional cooperation—especially through ASEAN—remains slow and divided. The bloc’s Five-Point Consensus on Myanmar, adopted in 2021, has made little progress. While Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore have spoken out strongly against the junta’s election plans, other ASEAN members continue to prioritize non-interference. Diplomats privately acknowledge that ASEAN has limited ability to influence the December polls, heightening fears that the Rohingya issue will remain unresolved for years.

Major powers have also reacted cautiously. India, sharing a sensitive border with Myanmar’s western and northeastern regions, prioritises security interests and infrastructure projects under its Act East Policy. New Delhi has expressed concern over the humanitarian situation but remains wary of pressuring the junta in ways that could push Myanmar further into China’s orbit.

China, Myanmar’s most influential external partner, has focused on stability around its Belt and Road Initiative projects, including the Kyaukphyu deep-sea port and the China–Myanmar Economic Corridor. While Beijing maintains contact with both the junta and powerful ethnic armed groups, analysts note that China’s primary concern is safeguarding its interests—not advancing democratic reforms or resolving the Rohingya issue. As long as the military remains the dominant actor, China is expected to accept the election outcome regardless of international criticism.

The United States and European countries have reiterated that the December 28 polls cannot be considered free or fair under current conditions. Washington continues to impose sanctions on military-linked entities and supports international accountability mechanisms for atrocities against the Rohingya. Yet Western influence on Myanmar remains limited as the junta aligns more closely with China and Russia.

As global scepticism intensifies, humanitarian agencies warn that the Rohingya crisis is at risk of becoming permanently entrenched. Without credible political change inside Myanmar or stronger coordinated pressure from the international community, progress toward repatriation or restoration of rights appears unlikely. With the upcoming election facing widespread doubts, hopes for resolving the Rohingya crisis dim further, leaving millions trapped in uncertainty.