By Sadik Sagar, Dhaka, November 20, 2025

India–Bangladesh relations, one of South Asia’s most strategically crucial bilateral partnerships, have entered their most fragile period in decades following the conviction and death sentence handed down to former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. With Hasina taking refuge in India since her ouster in August 2024 and the interim government in Dhaka repeatedly demanding her extradition, ties between the neighbours remain strained and uncertain, overshadowed by political distrust and shifting regional dynamics.

                                          The coming months will test both their           diplomatic maturity and their ability to adapt to a rapidly changing  political landscape.

For months, Hasina’s presence in India has been a source of serious displeasure for the authorities in Dhaka. That discontent has become sharper since Bangladesh’s International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) found her guilty of crimes against humanity for allegedly ordering and failing to stop lethal force during the 2024 student protests that left more than 1,400 people dead. Bangladesh’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has insisted that India has an “obligatory responsibility” under the bilateral extradition treaty to return the former prime minister. Dhaka has warned that continuing to shelter her would be “a highly unfriendly act.”

India, however, has adopted a markedly cautious response. In its official statement following the verdict, the Ministry of External Affairs said it had merely “noted” the ruling while reiterating India’s commitment to “peace, democracy, inclusion and stability” in Bangladesh. Notably, New Delhi has neither endorsed the tribunal’s judgment nor shown any inclination toward extraditing Hasina. Analysts widely expect India to rely on the “political offence” exception within the treaty to justify its position, especially as Hasina and many in New Delhi view the charges as politically motivated.

This stance reflects India’s strategic dilemma. Hasina’s long tenure was marked by unprecedented levels of cooperation with New Delhi across security, connectivity, energy and trade. Her removal — and the rise of what many in India see as an “anti-India” interim leadership — has complicated New Delhi’s geopolitical assessments. Extraditing Hasina, several analysts argue, could be interpreted as legitimizing political forces deeply critical of India’s past role in Bangladesh.

Sanjay Bhardwaj, a professor of South Asian studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University told Al Jazeera, India views the case against Hasina as “political vindictiveness” carried out by ruling forces in Dhaka who have openly expressed anti-India sentiments. In this context, he said, “handing over Hasina would mean legitimizing those opposed to India.”

Former Indian High Commissioner to Dhaka Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty echoed this concern, noting that the strained atmosphere is unlikely to ease soon. As long as Hasina remains in India, Dhaka’s accusations will continue, he said, prolonging diplomatic discomfort.

Other analysts believe India must now rethink its long-standing reliance on the Awami League. Sreeradha Datta of Jindal Global University pointed out that while Hasina has historically been India’s “best bet,” New Delhi must accept that a political comeback for her is unlikely. Instead, she said, India must build relationships with other stakeholders in Bangladesh — something it has struggled to do in the past.

Still, Hasina’s exile presents both challenges and possible advantages for New Delhi. Michael Kugelman, a South Asia analyst based in Washington, DC, told Al Jazeera, her presence would remain “a thorn in the bilateral relationship” but also allows India to demonstrate loyalty to an ally at a difficult political moment. In the long term, he argued, dynastic parties such as the Awami League often endure political setbacks and later recover, meaning India’s continued ties to Hasina may someday carry strategic benefits.

For now, however, bilateral relations remain at a delicate and divisive juncture. Many former diplomats believe the frostiness could continue until Bangladesh holds elections in February 2026, which may provide a more stable political environment for renewed engagement. Until then, India is expected to exercise restraint, maintain economic and connectivity cooperation, and avoid steps that could deepen mistrust.

Whether the two neighbors can navigate these tensions without long-term damage will shape the future of South Asian geopolitics. The coming months will test both their diplomatic maturity and their ability to adapt to a rapidly changing political landscape.