As both governments trade accusations and threats, the risk of miscalculation grows—threatening not only Pakistan and Afghanistan, but the broader security architecture of South Asia

By Sadik Sagar, Dhaka, November 27, 2025

Tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan have surged once again after the Taliban administration in Kabul accused Pakistan of carrying out deadly airstrikes in eastern Afghanistan, killing 10 civilians, most of them children. The latest escalation threatens to destabilize an already fragile security environment in South Asia, where cross-border militancy, political mistrust and humanitarian pressures are tightly intertwined.

The incident comes at a delicate time, barely weeks after a temporary truce—brokered by Qatar and Turkey—helped ease prior border clashes following a suicide bombing in Peshawar that killed three Pakistani paramilitary personnel. That attack revived harsh rhetoric from Islamabad, which blamed the TTP and alleged that the group enjoys sanctuaries inside Afghanistan. Afghan officials dismissed those claims, but the exchange deepened a growing diplomatic rift that neither side has managed to resolve.

The latest flare-up adds a dangerous new dimension to South Asia’s security landscape. Analysts warn that if the reports of civilian casualties are confirmed, public anger in Afghanistan could push the Taliban leadership toward a firmer military posture against Pakistan. Such a trajectory could increase the frequency of border clashes and undermine regional counterterrorism cooperation at a time when militant networks are showing signs of renewed mobility.

The situation also threatens to complicate ongoing efforts by international mediators who have been attempting to stabilize relations between the two neighbors. The alleged strikes risk undoing months of diplomatic engagement and could push the Taliban further away from external actors seeking dialogue on humanitarian access, border management and counterterrorism frameworks.

According to Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid, Pakistani aircraft struck a house in Khost province, killing nine children and one woman. Additional attacks were also reported in neighboring Kunar and Paktika provinces, leaving at least four others injured. The Taliban condemned the incident as a violation of Afghanistan’s sovereignty and vowed to deliver a response “at the right time” and in a manner it described as “appropriate.”

While Pakistan’s military has not issued a formal confirmation or denial of the strikes, officials in Islamabad have repeatedly expressed frustration over what they claim is the Taliban leadership’s failure to rein in the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the militant group responsible for numerous attacks inside Pakistan. Kabul has consistently denied harboring TTP fighters, insisting that it does not allow Afghan soil to be used against any other country.

For Pakistan, any escalation carries significant domestic implications. The country is already under pressure from rising militancy, political polarization and economic uncertainty. A prolonged standoff with Afghanistan could stretch its security resources and risk inflaming nationalist sentiments, particularly in border regions where livelihoods depend heavily on cross-border trade.

The latest allegations of Pakistani airstrikes in eastern Afghanistan mark a serious escalation in an already volatile bilateral relationship. As both governments trade accusations and threats, the risk of miscalculation grows—threatening not only Pakistan and Afghanistan, but the broader security architecture of South Asia. Without rapid and credible diplomatic intervention, the region may be heading toward a cycle of retaliation that could destabilize one of the world’s most fragile geopolitical arenas.