As both countries advance toward the deal, policymakers across the Indo-Pacific will closely watch how this strengthened partnership influences the region’s strategic landscape

By Sadik Sagar, Dhaka, November 27, 2025

Canada is close to finalizing a US$2.8 billion uranium export deal with India, a potential milestone that carries significant implications for the Indo-Pacific region, where geopolitical competition and energy-security concerns continue to intensify. As Ottawa and New Delhi move toward deeper nuclear-energy cooperation, analysts say the agreement could reshape regional alignments, strengthen India’s strategic positioning, and mark Canada’s most consequential re-entry into Indo-Pacific affairs in years.

Beyond the economic and energy dimensions, the timing of the agreement carries deeper geopolitical significance. Canada’s Indo-Pacific Strategy, unveiled in recent years, explicitly aims to expand engagement across security, trade, and clean-energy sectors. Nuclear cooperation has emerged as one of the central pillars of that policy shift.

By strengthening ties with India — a key Indo-Pacific power and a counterweight to China — Canada signals a strategic recalibration. Ottawa has sought greater diversification in the region, particularly after relations with Beijing became strained. Expanding nuclear cooperation with India allows Canada not only to deepen bilateral ties but also to position itself as a more active participant in the region’s evolving security architecture.

For India, the deal enhances its strategic autonomy. Securing long-term uranium supplies from a trusted Western partner reduces reliance on a limited group of exporters and strengthens New Delhi’s standing in Indo-Pacific power dynamics. The agreement may also reinforce India’s nuclear-energy diplomacy as it seeks greater influence across South Asia and the wider region.

India’s expanding nuclear capacity will support its clean-energy goals, reduce dependence on coal, and improve long-term grid stability. A reliable uranium supply from Canada strengthens India’s ability to maintain a diversified, low-carbon energy portfolio—an outcome that could encourage similar strategies among other Indo-Pacific nations grappling with energy-security challenges.

The emerging deal is expected to involve long-term uranium supplies from Canadian producer Cameco Corp to India’s state-run nuclear power sector. If finalized, it would become the largest nuclear-fuel agreement between the two countries, surpassing earlier arrangements signed in 2015 and 2018.

Canada and India revived civilian nuclear cooperation in 2013 after a decades-long freeze triggered by proliferation concerns. The thaw accelerated when Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Canada in 2015, resulting in a five-year uranium supply agreement. The new deal, estimated at US$2.8 billion over a decade, would significantly expand the scope and duration of the partnership.

For India — which currently operates more than 20 nuclear reactors and has ambitious plans for expansion — a stable uranium supply chain is essential. The country hopes to increase nuclear power’s share in its energy mix as part of long-term decarbonization and energy-security strategies. Canada, one of the world’s leading uranium exporters, is well positioned to meet that growing demand.

Although neither country publicly frames the deal as part of strategic competition with China, analysts note that deepened nuclear and clean-energy ties between Canada and India contribute to a broader balancing effort in the Indo-Pacific. The agreement brings the two states into closer alignment with other regional players, including Japan, Australia, and the United States, who advocate for a multipolar and rules-based Indo-Pacific order.

A finalized US$2.8 billion uranium agreement would mark a pivotal moment in Canada–India relations and a significant strategic development for the Indo-Pacific region. It would deepen cooperation on energy security, enhance Canada’s role in regional geopolitics, and bolster India’s clean-energy ambitions. As both countries advance toward the deal, policymakers across the Indo-Pacific will closely watch how this strengthened partnership influences the region’s strategic landscape.