Bangladesh–Pakistan Ties Thaw, Regional Balance Shifts

By Sadik Sagar:

South Asia is entering a subtle but significant phase of diplomatic realignment. Long shaped by historical rivalries and fragile alliances, the region is witnessing a cautious thaw between Bangladesh and Pakistan—two nations bound by shared history yet divided by decades of political distance. More than fifty years after their bitter separation in 1971, Dhaka and Islamabad appear to be reopening channels of cooperation amid shifting political realities and changing regional dynamics.

Relations between the two countries have remained uneasy since Bangladesh’s war of independence, when Pakistan’s military crackdown left deep scars and unresolved grievances. Though Pakistan recognized Bangladesh in 1974, the relationship never grew beyond formality. Trade remained limited, political dialogue sporadic, and cultural or people-to-people exchanges virtually nonexistent. Efforts in the 1980s and 1990s to build confidence, mostly through the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), yielded little progress. Mistrust, coupled with the shadow of India–Pakistan hostility, kept Dhaka and Islamabad on opposite ends of South Asia’s political spectrum.

Under the long rule of the Awami League, Bangladesh maintained a cool and cautious stance toward Pakistan, often invoking the memory of 1971 in domestic and foreign policy narratives. That equation has shifted following the fall of the Awami League–led government. The new leadership in Dhaka has embraced a more pragmatic and multipolar approach to foreign relations, signaling a desire to diversify partnerships beyond traditional allies. While India remains Bangladesh’s closest neighbor and strategic partner, the government has also intensified engagement with China, the United States, and Muslim-majority states—including Pakistan.

Pakistan, sensing a diplomatic opening, has responded with goodwill gestures. Islamabad has sent messages on Bangladesh’s national days and voiced interest in expanding economic ties. Dhaka’s responses, warmer than at any point in recent years, suggest that both sides are now looking to move from formality to functional cooperation. Trade and investment are emerging as key areas of interest. Pakistan sees Bangladesh as a growing market for its textiles, pharmaceuticals, and agricultural products, while Bangladeshi exporters view Pakistan as a potential destination for ready-made garments and consumer goods. Though current trade remains modest, both governments recognize the potential for expansion, especially as Bangladesh prepares to graduate from Least Developed Country status in 2026.

Beyond economics, there are signs of renewed educational and cultural engagement. More Bangladeshi students are pursuing higher studies in Pakistan, and cricket—a sport deeply loved in both nations—continues to act as a form of soft diplomacy, fostering goodwill that politics long suppressed.

Analysts describe the renewed engagement as a calculated, rather than emotional, move by both governments. “What we are witnessing is less about emotion and more about calculation,” said Dr. Farhana Rahman, a foreign policy scholar at Dhaka University. “The new government wants options beyond India, and Pakistan sees this as a rare opening to reconnect with Dhaka.” Former diplomat Shamsul Haque echoed that view, noting, “For decades, ties with Pakistan were politically sensitive under the Awami League. Now there is less hesitation, as the new leadership is not tied to the same ideological baggage.”

The shifting dynamic has implications beyond bilateral ties. India, which has long enjoyed close relations with Bangladesh, may find Dhaka’s new outreach to Islamabad both unexpected and unsettling. “Bangladesh is sending a clear signal that it will not be anyone’s junior partner,” said Indian analyst Rajiv Menon. “If Pakistan regains a foothold, India will have to recalibrate its expectations.” The changing landscape also benefits China, whose strategic ambitions in South Asia hinge on connectivity through both Bangladesh and Pakistan. As core partners in the Belt and Road Initiative and the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor, improved ties between Dhaka and Islamabad align neatly with Beijing’s regional interests.

The rapprochement could also revive dormant regional mechanisms such as SAARC, which has been paralyzed for years by India–Pakistan tensions. A closer working relationship between Bangladesh and Pakistan might help restore some momentum to South Asian cooperation, at least in trade and connectivity. Still, caution prevails. Both governments remain aware of the sensitivities that linger from 1971 and the potential for domestic criticism or regional suspicion.

“This is not a return to old alliances but the beginning of a new, cautious pragmatism,” Dr. Rahman observed. “Both countries are seeking flexibility in an increasingly polarized region.” Whether this pragmatic warmth can evolve into sustainable partnership remains to be seen, but it marks a notable departure from decades of diplomatic frost. If managed wisely, the re-engagement between Bangladesh and Pakistan could subtly reshape South Asia’s strategic balance—challenging India’s dominance, amplifying China’s influence, and reintroducing the idea of a more interconnected region.